Statistically speaking, September was a poor month for the bitcoin market. Investor returns have been negative for the previous four September. The value of the largest cryptocurrency has dropped 20% since August 1. The technical analysis may point to a further fall in September as the trading session for today comes to a conclusion.
Since 2017, September has generally been a poor month for Bitcoin. In the previous five years, the average monthly decline in the price of bitcoin was 8.5%. Crypto analysts, however, think that this year is different since fundamentals and on-chain activity have increased along with adoption because of the price decline.
A market-wide sell-off caused the price of Bitcoin to fall below $21,000. The price of Bitcoin has been inactive for a while. Due to the low percentage of fees in total block rewards, there is less demand on the Bitcoin network. In the past, the BTC has always been oversold and bearish if the proportion of fees in the block reward falls below 3%. The negative cycle typically ends once the indicator rises above 3%.
Traders ought to hold out until the entire block reward goes over 3% in terms of fees. It will signal rising network demand, pointing to possible market strength. The network demand is still minimal, thus the new bull cycle is still some way off. Investors should therefore watch for a bearish rally to indicate a clear positive trend.
What are the Expert Opinions?
The price of Bitcoin at $19.9k, in the opinion of cryptocurrency analyst Michal van de Poppe, may further decline. A $19.5K sweep is anticipated. Additionally, he favors a break of $20.6k at shorter time frames to signal the end of a bullish trend.
Since the majority of cryptocurrencies are trading below their 20-day SMA, the crypto market is weak and stagnant, claims Crypto Birb. For Bitcoin to succeed, a break above the 200-WMA at $23k is necessary.