Lately a fellow columnist claimed that Social Climate Stations did an election survey on Jan. 28-31, 2022, and that SWS launched the outcomes on Feb. 16, 2022 (see Joel Ruiz Butuyan, “Probing the surveys,” 4/7/22). But anybody who checks will see that there isn’t a such SWS report posted on www.sws.org.ph, which might be the professional foundation for the declare.
In my earlier column “The election survey scene” (3/19/22), I made it clear that Social Climate Stations has not been publishing any horse-race statistics for 2022, just because, for the primary time since 1992, it has no media sponsor within the present presidential election season.
My column listed the numerous media corporations that sponsored SWS election surveys from 1992 to 2016. There was likewise no media sponsor in off-year 2019, and so SWS revealed nothing that 12 months. Why media corporations are shy this time round is for them, not SWS, to elucidate. Let it’s a problem to investigative journalism.
Election surveys matter for skilled credentials. Success in predicting elections is the historic litmus check for the standard of survey analysis, ever since George Gallup’s ballot predicted the re-election of Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936, opposite to the prediction of the journal Literary Digest, primarily based on a coupon-clipping system.
To earn their credentials, all newcomers to survey analysis ought to definitely attempt their hand at election prediction. Do it small scale, on the native authorities stage, and shock your self that it really works.
Social Climate Stations, for its half, has the longest, most profitable, monitor document, and doesn’t have to additional show itself. The presentation by Leo S. Laroza, “Do polls affect elections?” (Asian Convention for Political Communication, Singapore, 9/5/2017; reposted on the web site, 3/16/22), summarizes the SWS surveys as of the 2016 election.
By the way in which, the quick reply to the query in Laroza’s title is: OPINION POLLS HAVE VERY LITTLE INFLUENCE. Their restricted impact on preferences amongst candidates was discovered by SWS surveys that requested voters, after that they had voted, in the event that they knew about such polls, and to what extent, if any, the polls affected them.
Open election surveys are the exception, not the rule. The political marketing campaign execs know that survey analysis could be very precious. They may pooh-pooh them in public however jealously guard them in non-public. They don’t need their candidates’ Strengths, Weaknesses, Alternatives, and Threats (SWOT for brief) uncovered to their opponents.
Survey analysis is a way for each contender in an election to find the SWOTs of all the opposite contenders. The actual trick is in figuring out the fitting inquiries to ask, after which maintaining the questions a secret. Those that know the crucial questions can use science to search out the solutions. The expertise of the perfect political campaigners is of their know-how in guessing the SWOTs of the candidates.
The SWS survey embargo is three years at most. In privately commissioned surveys, together with election surveys, the contract with SWS assures confidentiality for at most three years after challenge completion. An embargo can finish earlier, on the discretion of the analysis sponsor.
All authentic uncooked knowledge, whether or not about elections or not, are archived by SWS, and turn out to be open after the top of any embargo interval for analysis by the social science neighborhood. This now contains the a whole bunch of SWS surveys associated to the 2016 election, or earlier. After all, SWS reserves the fitting to set circumstances, together with entry charges, similar to these of the social survey archives that lecturers in different nations use.
Archived survey knowledge don’t get “outdated”—“stale” is the journalistic time period. Such knowledge are historic, and without end. They’re actually priceless: There is no such thing as a worth at which a survey that has been completed will be later redone.
Erratum: The primary paragraph of my 4/2/22 column ought to have learn: “The brand new SWS report on starvation—‘Fourth Quarter 2021 Social Climate Survey: Starvation rises from 10.0% to 11.8%,’ www.sws.org.ph, 3/25/22—is its ninety fifth from July 1998, when 8.9 % of family heads mentioned their household skilled involuntary starvation … ” In different phrases, the 8.9 was the start line in July 1998, not the brand new level of 2021Q4.
Contact: [email protected]
Subscribe to INQUIRER PLUS to get entry to The Philippine Day by day Inquirer & different 70+ titles, share as much as 5 devices, take heed to the information, obtain as early as 4am & share articles on social media. Name 896 6000.