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On today’s show we discuss:
Future Proof Festival
Given all the discussion this week, I thought it’d be interesting to look back at the one example we have of a two-quarter contraction in G.D.P. that was *not* labeled a recession by NBER: Q2 and Q3, 1947.
— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman) July 27, 2022
Rare to see: Fed is actively hiking rates (blue line) while GDP is contracting (bottom) … typically in prior recessions (red bars), Fed has been cutting rates as GDP has declined pic.twitter.com/nmrYG3TBc0
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) August 1, 2022
B of A: “The recent debate about whether the US is already in a recession is a distraction. Rip roaring payroll, strong GDI and strong final sales all suggest ‘recession’ is still a forecast, not a reality.” [Harris] pic.twitter.com/kuKQ9ry8De
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) July 29, 2022
Fun facts: In the first six months of the 1981-82 recession, we lost 1,046k jobs, in the first six months of the 1990-01 recession we lost 690k jobs, in 2001 we lost 761k jobs, in 2007-09, we lost 705k jobs. In 2022 we gained 2,740k jobs.
— Dean Baker (@DeanBaker13) July 29, 2022
Stepping back from the ultra high frequency debates this picture from @WSJ is a great reminder of just how much better economic policy has gotten over the last eighty years compared to what came before. Both better understanding and institutional progress. https://t.co/RBlb89Z6hT pic.twitter.com/X9p5CLn46I
— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) July 30, 2022
10-year Treasurys recorded the biggest one-month yield decline since **March 2020**–Dow Jones Market Data.
At 2.642% today
— Gunjan Banerji (@GunjanJS) July 29, 2022
The S&P 500 gained 3.9% on the day of the Fed hike and following day.
That is officially the best rally after a hike going back to 1970 (Bloomberg data).
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) July 28, 2022
5. There has never been a recession without a 4Q GAAP EPS decline. In most recessions, Y/Y EPS growth has ⬇️ <-20%.
That’s critical because the market tends to⬆️ faster when EPS growth is ⬇️(markets anticipate reversals), EXCEPT when EPS growth has been <-20% (SPX -9.8% GPA). 5/5 pic.twitter.com/5NN7K5yAcW
— Ed Clissold (@edclissold) July 25, 2022
Proceeds from IPOs of technology companies have amounted to $512M, down from $58.7B last year.
— Ryan Petersen (@typesfast) July 27, 2022
mortgage rates have been exceptionally volatile in 2022.
so far this year the standard deviation of the weekly change in the 30-year FRM is 18 basis points, highest since 2008 and third highest in the past half century pic.twitter.com/BlgX03CU7I
— 📈 Len Kiefer 📊 (@lenkiefer) July 29, 2022
Incredible story. Tiger Global-backed start up MissFresh just told staff its run out of money. At same time, unpaid suppliers have occupied its offices in protest. Reminder: was listed at $3bn valuation last year – in @FT https://t.co/Sfp4OK3wEy
— Murad Ahmed (@muradahmed) July 28, 2022
The median real revenue growth for the FAANG stocks has officially turned negative for the first time in almost 2 decades. pic.twitter.com/CAUP6VZQU7
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) July 29, 2022
*BEST BUY DROPS 11% AS 2Q COMPARABLE SALES TO DECLINE ABOUT 13%
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 27, 2022
Once people get used to a certain luxury, they take it for granted. Then they begin to count on it. Finally, they reach a point where they can’t live without it. pic.twitter.com/4t2hz9xGOE
— Yuval Noah Harari (@harari_yuval) July 12, 2022
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